Moving forcasting model Essays (933 words) - Time Series Analysis

Moving forcasting model Moving forcasting model Forecasting Models and Types of Data How can trendless data be evaluated? Trendless data can be evaluated by calculating a moving average; this can also be referred to as exponential smoothing. There are two main types of moving averages: trailing or centered (Cooper How does a trailing-moving average compare to a centered-moving average? Trailing moving average (TMA) is considered to be the simplest of the moving averages. TMA calculates the moving average over the last m periods. The TMA smoothes the past fluctuations in the time-series, helping us see the pattern more clearly. The choice of m depends on the situation (Cooper The larger m would yield a smoother TMA but would require more data than a smaller m. TMA is best regarded as a one-period-ahead forecast (Cooper With centered moving average (CMA), the formula looks both forward and backward in time, to express the current forecast as the mean of the current observation and observations on either side of the current data (Cooper When n is an odd number it makes CMA easy to calculate, however when m is even the formula calculation becomes more complex. The similarity is that both are used to smooth the data. A difference is that TMA is looking at forward time to calculate the average and C MA looks backwards and forwards. When should exponential smoothing be used for data? Explain with an example. When the data is irregular meaning it is lacking T or S or C components, exponential smoothing is used to make a short run forecast. The exponential smoothing model is a special kind of moving average. It is used for ongoing one-period-ahead forecasting for data that has up-and-down movements but no consistent trend (Cooper This is a simple forecasting model with two inputs and one constant. In exponential smoothing, what type of smoothing constant should be chosen for little smoothing compared with moderate smoothing? The value of , called the smoothing constant, is the weight given to the latest data (Cooper MINITAB uses a=.20 for the default in the case of moderate smoothing. Therefore if a=.50 it would be a case for little smoothing. If a=.20 moderate smoothing would be the case. Research Process What are the six stages in a research process? Clarifying the research question- A useful way to approach the research process is to state the basic dilemma that prompts the research and then try to develop other questions by progressively breaking down the original question into more specific ones (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p.81). Proposing research- Without budgetary approval, many research efforts are terminated for lack of resources (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p.85). Designing the research project- The research design is the blueprint for fulfilling objectives and answering questions. Selecting a design may be complicated by the availability of a large variety of methods, techniques, procedures, protocols, and sampling plans (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p.88). Data collection and preparation- The gathering of data may range from a simple observation at one location to a grandiose survey of multinational corporations at sites in different parts of the world. The method selected will largely determine how the data are collected (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p.90). Data analysis and interpretation- Managers need information, not raw data. Researchers generate information by analyzing data after its collection (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p.90). Reporting the results- It is necessary to prepare a report and transmit the findings and recommendations to the manager for the intended purpose of decision making (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p.91). Which stage is the most difficult to complete? Why? Which stage is the most important? Why? After reading the text about the research process, I personally feel that stage 3, designing the research project is the most difficult of the 6 stages. This is because there are so many decisions to be made during this step. Not to mention that this is the main planning stage of the project. Selecting a design may be complicated by the availability of a large variety of methods, techniques, procedures, protocols, and sampling plans (Cooper & Schindler 2011 p. 88).